New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.21 – 280.04

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 83.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.6 ±10.4

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 74.99Rank 49Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 73.25Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 144.97Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.5 ±10.4

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 141.52Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 77.54Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 60.98Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8889, 1100, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8889, 1100, 839

Auto

60.9 21%

Teleop

158.6 55%

Endgame

67.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7674, 5962, 4761

/ 100 compat

Projected

280 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7674, 5962, 4761

Auto

73.1 26%

Teleop

151.8 55%

Endgame

52.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score293.2pts

Blue projected score280pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.2
Score range: 229–344
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 283.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.6Season APEX396.5

60.9Auto73.1

158.6Teleop151.8

67.4Endgame52.1

143Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	48
teleop	137	109
endgame	48	48
foul	0	0
total	202	205

Result

Final score

202 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 83.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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