New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

308.11 – 349.03

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

259 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 555.6 ±9.4

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 14.9Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 265.33Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 27.88Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 557.7 ±9.8

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 133.76Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 163.05Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 52.22Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3323, 3467, 1735

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3323, 3467, 1735

Auto

52.5 17%

Teleop

186.3 60%

Endgame

71.2 23%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 238, 10973, 1071

/ 100 compat

Projected

349 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 238, 10973, 1071

Auto

37.8 11%

Teleop

184.3 53%

Endgame

123.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score308.1pts

Blue projected score349pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.9
Score range: 257–400
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 552 vs event baseline 282.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

555.6Season APEX557.7

52.5Auto37.8

186.3Teleop184.3

71.2Endgame123.9

189Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	32
teleop	130	135
endgame	38	126
foul	40	0
total	259	293

Result

Final score

259 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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