New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.62 – 49.19

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

228 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 116.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.6 ±9.8

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 105.27Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 16.2Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 110.15Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.8 ±9.8

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 9.5Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 68.41Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX -28.72Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 176, 1991, 8544

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 176, 1991, 8544

Auto

84.1 35%

Teleop

123.9 52%

Endgame

32.3 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 558, 8046, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 558, 8046, 3566

Auto

27.6 68%

Teleop

14.0 35%

Endgame

-1.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score231.6pts

Blue projected score49.2pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 182.4
Score range: -2–283
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 283.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.6Season APEX431.8

84.1Auto27.6

123.9Teleop14

32.3Endgame-1.1

60Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	56
teleop	117	178
endgame	102	44
foul	0	0
total	228	278

Result

Final score

228 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 116.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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