New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.87 – 269.04

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

378 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535.1 ±9.8

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 144.37Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 97.8Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 39.7Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.3 ±10.4

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX -7.17Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 157.91Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 118.3Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 319, 2877, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 319, 2877, 8013

Auto

60.5 21%

Teleop

171.3 60%

Endgame

54.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 467, 1153, 178

/ 100 compat

Projected

269 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 467, 1153, 178

Auto

26.7 10%

Teleop

173.8 63%

Endgame

73.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score281.9pts

Blue projected score269pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.8
Score range: 218–333
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 281.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535.1Season APEX367.3

60.5Auto26.7

171.3Teleop173.8

54Endgame73.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	50
teleop	169	125
endgame	131	91
foul	5	5
total	378	271

Result

Final score

378 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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