New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.67 – 335.85

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

436 – 452

Prediction correct · off by 201.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 640.4 ±9.8

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 0.35Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 120.62Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 28.7Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 707.8 ±9.3

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 67.18Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 108.01Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 160.66Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4761, 6329, 11131

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4761, 6329, 11131

Auto

39.1 27%

Teleop

71.8 50%

Endgame

31.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 166, 7407, 1699

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.9 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 166, 7407, 1699

Auto

85.4 26%

Teleop

138.0 43%

Endgame

99.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.09 · Blue 3.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score149.7pts

Blue projected score335.9pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 47%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -186.2
Score range: 101–385
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 888 vs event baseline 274.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

640.4Season APEX707.8

39.1Auto85.4

71.8Teleop138

31.3Endgame99.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	107
teleop	207	258
endgame	137	87
foul	0	0
total	436	452

Result

Final score

436 – 452

Prediction correct · off by 201.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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