New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.01 – 254.82

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 436

Prediction missed · off by 174.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.7 ±10.4

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 81.71Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 97.81Rank 49Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 77.49Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.5 ±9.8

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 80.53Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 72.87Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 101.42Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3597, 8889, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

257 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3597, 8889, 2423

Auto

79.7 31%

Teleop

145.0 57%

Endgame

30.5 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 238, 2648, 8085

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 238, 2648, 8085

Auto

68.1 27%

Teleop

115.2 45%

Endgame

71.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score257pts

Blue projected score254.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.2
Score range: 204–308
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 526 vs event baseline 284.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.7Season APEX550.5

79.7Auto68.1

145Teleop115.2

30.5Endgame71

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	80
teleop	44	244
endgame	8	107
foul	0	5
total	90	436

Result

Final score

90 – 436

Prediction missed · off by 174.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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