New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

246.79 – 340.47

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

300 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.6 ±10.4

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 25.08Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 95.58Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 126.13Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.4 ±9.8

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 58.27Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 160.67Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 121.53Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 558, 228, 10973

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 558, 228, 10973

Auto

46.6 19%

Teleop

146.6 59%

Endgame

56.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8046, 7674, 1119

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8046, 7674, 1119

Auto

48.9 14%

Teleop

209.3 62%

Endgame

81.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score246.8pts

Blue projected score340.5pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.7
Score range: 196–391
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 614 vs event baseline 283.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.6Season APEX490.4

46.6Auto48.9

146.6Teleop209.3

56.3Endgame81.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	47
teleop	167	184
endgame	90	83
foul	0	0
total	300	314

Result

Final score

300 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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