New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

254.97 – 421.89

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

480 – 420

Prediction missed · off by 113.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 550.1 ±9.4

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 2.64Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 68.26Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 184.07Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 619.7 ±8.8

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 194.19Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 182.45Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 45.25Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1991, 839, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

255 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1991, 839, 3467

Auto

55.9 23%

Teleop

149.9 61%

Endgame

41.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4909, 6328, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4909, 6328, 5422

Auto

74.0 18%

Teleop

240.8 57%

Endgame

105.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score255pts

Blue projected score421.9pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -166.9
Score range: 205–472
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 900 vs event baseline 279.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

550.1Season APEX619.7

55.9Auto74

149.9Teleop240.8

41.6Endgame105.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	21
teleop	301	232
endgame	112	157
foul	0	10
total	480	420

Result

Final score

480 – 420

Prediction missed · off by 113.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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