New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.76 – 30.16

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 80.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 574.6 ±9.3

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 70.3Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 19.81Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 118.65Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 501 ±9.8

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 12.95Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX -12.35Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 29.56Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5962, 6201, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5962, 6201, 176

Auto

54.0 26%

Teleop

138.5 68%

Endgame

12.1 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1735, 467, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1735, 467, 238

Auto

13.8 40%

Teleop

-6.9 0%

Endgame

27.7 80%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score208.8pts

Blue projected score30.2pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 178.6
Score range: -21–260
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 285.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

574.6Season APEX501

54Auto13.8

138.5Teleop-6.9

12.1Endgame27.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	27
teleop	94	66
endgame	40	89
foul	0	0
total	200	182

Result

Final score

200 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 80.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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