New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.22 – 97.76

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

404 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 182.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538 ±9.8

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 66.43Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 79.97Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 72.82Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.4 ±10.4

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 60.77Rank 49Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 48.68Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX -11.69Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1119, 1922, 1153

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1119, 1922, 1153

Auto

39.3 18%

Teleop

112.2 51%

Endgame

70.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8889, 8085, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8889, 8085, 558

Auto

21.4 21%

Teleop

63.6 64%

Endgame

14.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.45 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score219.2pts

Blue projected score97.8pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.5
Score range: 47–270
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 682 vs event baseline 281.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538Season APEX311.4

39.3Auto21.4

112.2Teleop63.6

70.2Endgame14.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	79
teleop	226	137
endgame	166	62
foul	0	0
total	404	278

Result

Final score

404 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 182.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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