New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.15 – 134.12

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 99.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.7 ±10.4

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX -2.06Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 18.86Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 73.35Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 614.5 ±8.8

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 25.76Rank 12Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 18.86Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 89.5Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4761, 11483, 95

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4761, 11483, 95

Auto

11.4 12%

Teleop

54.0 57%

Endgame

29.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 190, 11131, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 190, 11131, 2877

Auto

27.9 20%

Teleop

80.4 59%

Endgame

29.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.38 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score90.1pts

Blue projected score134.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44
Score range: 38–186
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 286.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.7Season APEX614.5

11.4Auto27.9

54Teleop80.4

29.8Endgame29.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	40
teleop	66	165
endgame	47	79
foul	15	0
total	139	284

Result

Final score

139 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 99.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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