New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.35 – 220.84

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

198 – 354

Prediction missed · off by 80.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432.2 ±9.8

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 77.71Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 88.17Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 60.47Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.7 ±9.8

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 130.56Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 12.57Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 77.71Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 61, 8544, 166

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 61, 8544, 166

Auto

55.3 25%

Teleop

118.9 53%

Endgame

50.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 88, 7153, 10973

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 88, 7153, 10973

Auto

51.7 23%

Teleop

114.7 52%

Endgame

54.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score226.4pts

Blue projected score220.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.5
Score range: 169–278
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 552 vs event baseline 287.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432.2Season APEX499.7

55.3Auto51.7

118.9Teleop114.7

50.3Endgame54.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	80
teleop	50	187
endgame	59	87
foul	0	0
total	198	354

Result

Final score

198 – 354

Prediction missed · off by 80.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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