New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

182.88 – 200.33

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

231 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.6 ±10.4

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 54.86Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 51.78Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 76.24Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.9 ±10.4

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 83.72Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 76.58Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 40.03Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8013, 3323, 2648

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8013, 3323, 2648

Auto

35.0 19%

Teleop

109.8 60%

Endgame

39.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4041, 2423, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4041, 2423, 5422

Auto

30.2 15%

Teleop

95.3 47%

Endgame

75.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score182.9pts

Blue projected score200.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.5
Score range: 130–253
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 292.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.6Season APEX401.9

35Auto30.2

109.8Teleop95.3

39.4Endgame75.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	46
teleop	144	109
endgame	26	62
foul	5	0
total	231	217

Result

Final score

231 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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