New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

322.61 – 128.75

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

435 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 511.4 ±9.8

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 93.14Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 78.78Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 150.69Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.4 ±10.4

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 30.41Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 52.57Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 45.77Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 176, 178, 7674

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 176, 178, 7674

Auto

68.1 21%

Teleop

182.2 56%

Endgame

76.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1735, 3182, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1735, 3182, 1991

Auto

22.5 17%

Teleop

82.3 64%

Endgame

24.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.74 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score322.6pts

Blue projected score128.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.9
Score range: 77–375
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 286.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

511.4Season APEX245.4

68.1Auto22.5

182.2Teleop82.3

76.7Endgame24.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	26
teleop	285	40
endgame	75	11
foul	0	0
total	435	77

Result

Final score

435 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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