New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 100

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.87 – 271.95

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

223 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.2 ±9.4

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX -2.15Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 21.68Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 140.34Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 503.2 ±9.4

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 123.12Rank 12Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 40.62Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 108.21Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3597, 3182, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3597, 3182, 4909

Auto

42.9 27%

Teleop

77.9 49%

Endgame

38.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 190, 3323, 8085

/ 100 compat

Projected

272 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 190, 3323, 8085

Auto

37.1 15%

Teleop

146.1 58%

Endgame

68.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score159.9pts

Blue projected score272pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.1
Score range: 105–327
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 513 vs event baseline 304.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.2Season APEX503.2

42.9Auto37.1

77.9Teleop146.1

38.6Endgame68.1

70Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	52
teleop	89	173
endgame	84	65
foul	0	0
total	223	290

Result

Final score

223 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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