New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

304.57 – 284.65

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

443 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 98 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559.2 ±9.4

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 165.14Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 94.57Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 44.86Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.5 ±9.8

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 116.08Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 94.57Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 74Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3467, 228, 1071

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3467, 228, 1071

Auto

45.4 15%

Teleop

182.9 60%

Endgame

76.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7407, 839, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7407, 839, 3566

Auto

37.2 13%

Teleop

171.6 60%

Endgame

76.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score304.6pts

Blue projected score284.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.9
Score range: 234–356
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 670 vs event baseline 280.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559.2Season APEX510.5

45.4Auto37.2

182.9Teleop171.6

76.3Endgame76.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	53
teleop	286	106
endgame	98	33
foul	0	35
total	443	227

Result

Final score

443 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 98 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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