New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

228.44 – 333.64

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 99.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.6 ±9.4

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 139.24Rank 12Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 58.53Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 30.67Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 635 ±9.8

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 260.12Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 8.61Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 64.91Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 1071, 1735

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 190, 1071, 1735

Auto

40.8 19%

Teleop

120.9 56%

Endgame

53.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6329, 1991, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6329, 1991, 177

Auto

70.7 20%

Teleop

195.7 57%

Endgame

79.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score228.4pts

Blue projected score333.6pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105.2
Score range: 170–392
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 319.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.6Season APEX635

40.8Auto70.7

120.9Teleop195.7

53.1Endgame79.4

63Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	61
teleop	88	116
endgame	47	29
foul	0	0
total	157	206

Result

Final score

157 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 99.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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