New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

547.84 – 550.74

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

408 – 368

Prediction missed · off by 161.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 896.7 ±8.1

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 29.38Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 254.35Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 264.11Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.1 ±9.3

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 102.36Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 226.32Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 222.06Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 3467, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

547.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6201, 3467, 6329

Auto

122.5 23%

Teleop

288.9 54%

Endgame

124.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7674, 6328, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

550.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7674, 6328, 88

Auto

111.3 20%

Teleop

307.0 56%

Endgame

126.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score547.8pts

Blue projected score550.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.9
Score range: 491–608
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 776 vs event baseline 318.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

896.7Season APEX693.1

122.5Auto111.3

288.9Teleop307

124Endgame126.6

70Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	124
teleop	221	214
endgame	50	0
foul	15	30
total	408	368

Result

Final score

408 – 368

Prediction missed · off by 161.3 pts

Match videos

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