New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

595 – 587.48

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

533 – 456

Prediction correct · off by 96.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 755 ±8.8

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 75.71Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 205.96Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 313.33Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 696.4 ±9.8

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 212.07Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 174.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 200.55Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1729, 195, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

595 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1729, 195, 125

Auto

120.5 21%

Teleop

340.1 58%

Endgame

126.0 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5000, 236, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

587.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5000, 236, 133

Auto

117.7 20%

Teleop

323.8 56%

Endgame

141.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.01 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score595pts

Blue projected score587.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.5
Score range: 524–658
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 989 vs event baseline 348.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

755Season APEX696.4

120.5Auto117.7

340.1Teleop323.8

126Endgame141.2

100Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	137	144
teleop	270	209
endgame	121	98
foul	5	5
total	533	456

Result

Final score

533 – 456

Prediction correct · off by 96.7 pts

Match videos

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