New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

402.22 – 477.96

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

463 – 435

Prediction missed · off by 51.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 640.2 ±9.3

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 58.28Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 190.04Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 153.9Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 697.3 ±9.3

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 190.1Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 154.49Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 133.37Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 175, 2067, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

402.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 175, 2067, 571

Auto

72.3 18%

Teleop

222.6 55%

Endgame

107.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 131, 78, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

478 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 131, 78, 1058

Auto

90.4 19%

Teleop

246.0 52%

Endgame

140.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.55 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score402.2pts

Blue projected score478pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.7
Score range: 340–540
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 898 vs event baseline 345.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

640.2Season APEX697.3

72.3Auto90.4

222.6Teleop246

107.3Endgame140.6

93Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	94
teleop	228	241
endgame	148	100
foul	0	0
total	463	435

Result

Final score

463 – 435

Prediction missed · off by 51.9 pts

Match videos

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