New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.29 – 380.77

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

412 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 675.9 ±9.3

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 167.95Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 94.54Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 120.8Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 675.1 ±9.3

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 171.31Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 58.07Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 151.39Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10254, 8709, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10254, 8709, 2370

Auto

78.4 21%

Teleop

212.5 56%

Endgame

86.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1073, 5112, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1073, 5112, 6324

Auto

89.9 24%

Teleop

204.7 55%

Endgame

77.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.1 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score383.3pts

Blue projected score380.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.5
Score range: 319–445
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 715 vs event baseline 345.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

675.9Season APEX675.1

78.4Auto89.9

212.5Teleop204.7

86.9Endgame77.3

110Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	90
teleop	174	150
endgame	124	58
foul	25	5
total	412	303

Result

Final score

412 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 pts

Match videos

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