Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
598.88 – 434.77
89%11%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
575 – 283
Prediction correct · off by 87.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 755 ±8.8
Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 76.9Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 206.59Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 315.39Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 640.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 69.86Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 260Event APEX 199.75Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 165.16Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1729, 195, 125
86
/ 100 compatProjected
598.9 pts
~2.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1729, 195, 125
Auto
112.7 19%
Teleop
342.8 58%
Endgame
134.0 23%
Strengths
- · 125 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 36%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 175, 2067, 571
77
/ 100 compatProjected
434.8 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 175, 2067, 571
Auto
79.0 18%
Teleop
237.1 54%
Endgame
120.3 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 36%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.73 · Blue 1.22
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score598.9pts
Blue projected score434.8pts
Red win probability89%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 64%
Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 33%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 164.1
- Score range
- 373–661
- Upset likelihood
- 11%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
755Season APEX640.2
112.7Auto79
342.8Teleop237.1
134Endgame120.3
108Consistency86
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 149 | 51 |
| teleop | 326 | 167 |
| endgame | 95 | 60 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 575 | 283 |
Result
Final score
575 – 283
Prediction correct · off by 87.8 pts
Match videos
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