New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

429.15 – 480.78

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

375 – 630

Prediction correct · off by 101.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 648.7 ±9.3

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 173.85Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 98.78Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 156.52Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 717.5 ±9.3

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 199.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 125.44Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 156.33Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1073, 230, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1073, 230, 6324

Auto

78.3 19%

Teleop

243.1 58%

Endgame

100.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5813, 2079, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

480.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5813, 2079, 2713

Auto

74.1 16%

Teleop

278.6 59%

Endgame

123.0 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.77 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score429.2pts

Blue projected score480.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.6
Score range: 368–542
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1005 vs event baseline 340.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

648.7Season APEX717.5

78.3Auto74.1

243.1Teleop278.6

100.5Endgame123

150Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	51
teleop	250	385
endgame	50	184
foul	0	10
total	375	630

Result

Final score

375 – 630

Prediction correct · off by 101.7 pts

Match videos

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