New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

593.61 – 384.88

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

620 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 13.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 804.2 ±8.1

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 51.12Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 301.24Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 241.25Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 675.9 ±9.3

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 167.38Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 94.27Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 123.23Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 5687, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

593.6 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9644, 5687, 1768

Auto

146.7 25%

Teleop

312.7 53%

Endgame

125.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10254, 8709, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10254, 8709, 2370

Auto

87.7 23%

Teleop

212.9 56%

Endgame

80.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.85 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score593.6pts

Blue projected score384.9pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 208.7
Score range: 324–655
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1006 vs event baseline 339.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

804.2Season APEX675.9

146.7Auto87.7

312.7Teleop212.9

125.5Endgame80.3

92Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	40
teleop	426	223
endgame	52	108
foul	50	15
total	620	386

Result

Final score

620 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 13.8 pts

Match videos

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