New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

576 – 565.94

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

791 – 665

Prediction correct · off by 157 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 804.2 ±8.1

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 44.17Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 238.31Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 293.52Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 696.4 ±9.8

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 203.87Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 168.21Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 193.86Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 1768, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

576 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9644, 1768, 5687

Auto

132.7 24%

Teleop

332.9 59%

Endgame

96.4 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5000, 236, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

565.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5000, 236, 133

Auto

119.7 21%

Teleop

310.4 55%

Endgame

131.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.05 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score576pts

Blue projected score565.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.1
Score range: 502–640
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1456 vs event baseline 354.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

804.2Season APEX696.4

132.7Auto119.7

332.9Teleop310.4

96.4Endgame131.6

84Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	160	128
teleop	399	315
endgame	217	217
foul	15	5
total	791	665

Result

Final score

791 – 665

Prediction correct · off by 157 pts

Match videos

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