New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

570.83 – 522.7

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

533 – 448

Prediction correct · off by 56.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 696.4 ±9.8

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 205.15Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 169.97Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 195.71Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 717.5 ±9.3

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 210.51Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 140.8Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 171.39Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5000, 236, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

570.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5000, 236, 133

Auto

121.1 21%

Teleop

312.2 55%

Endgame

133.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5813, 2079, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

522.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5813, 2079, 2713

Auto

79.1 15%

Teleop

304.0 59%

Endgame

132.4 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score570.8pts

Blue projected score522.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.1
Score range: 459–635
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 981 vs event baseline 353.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

696.4Season APEX717.5

121.1Auto79.1

312.2Teleop304

133.4Endgame132.4

110Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	84
teleop	298	239
endgame	120	105
foul	5	20
total	533	448

Result

Final score

533 – 448

Prediction correct · off by 56.3 pts

Match videos

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