Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
601.39 – 583.8
55%45%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
437 – 512
Prediction missed · off by 118.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 804.2 ±8.1
Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 53.62Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 245.86Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 301.91Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 755 ±8.8
Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 72.32Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 201.87Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 309.61Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9644, 1768, 5687
84
/ 100 compatProjected
601.4 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9644, 1768, 5687
Auto
134.1 23%
Teleop
347.0 59%
Endgame
104.5 18%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 39%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1729, 195, 125
87
/ 100 compatProjected
583.8 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1729, 195, 125
Auto
123.4 21%
Teleop
327.6 57%
Endgame
124.9 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 39%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.85
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score601.4pts
Blue projected score583.8pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 36%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 17.6
- Score range
- 521–664
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
804.2Season APEX755
134.1Auto123.4
347Teleop327.6
104.5Endgame124.9
79Consistency102
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 126 | 133 |
| teleop | 252 | 225 |
| endgame | 54 | 139 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 437 | 512 |
Result
Final score
437 – 512
Prediction missed · off by 118.1 pts
Match videos
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