New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

565.54 – 390.76

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

600 – 387

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 696.4 ±9.8

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 204.05Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 167.52Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 193.97Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 675.9 ±9.3

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 169.92Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 97.32Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 123.52Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5000, 236, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

565.5 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5000, 236, 133

Auto

122.2 22%

Teleop

304.5 54%

Endgame

134.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10254, 8709, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10254, 8709, 2370

Auto

79.6 21%

Teleop

207.7 54%

Endgame

94.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.88 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score565.5pts

Blue projected score390.8pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 174.8
Score range: 328–629
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 987 vs event baseline 350.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

696.4Season APEX675.9

122.2Auto79.6

304.5Teleop207.7

134Endgame94.6

119Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	115	90
teleop	354	167
endgame	131	130
foul	0	0
total	600	387

Result

Final score

600 – 387

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 pts

Match videos

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