New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

477.02 – 287.08

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

549 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 103 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 674.4 ±9.3

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 195.25Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 192.58Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 89.19Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528.6 ±9.3

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 168.02Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 60.95Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 58.11Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2067, 5813, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

477 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2067, 5813, 4311

Auto

64.0 14%

Teleop

251.0 53%

Endgame

155.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2713, 9644, 3623

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2713, 9644, 3623

Auto

43.1 15%

Teleop

182.0 64%

Endgame

60.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.93 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score477pts

Blue projected score287.1pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.9
Score range: 226–538
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 702 vs event baseline 340.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

674.4Season APEX528.6

64Auto43.1

251Teleop182

155.8Endgame60.7

121Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	39
teleop	261	88
endgame	172	26
foul	0	0
total	549	153

Result

Final score

549 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 103 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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