Qualification · Qualification 98
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
286.4 – 109.42
90%10%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
266 – 138
Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.4 ±9.8
Season APEX 269Event APEX 169.64Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 45.78Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 70.98Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.6 ±10.4
Season APEX 98Event APEX 52.64Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 28.12Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 82Event APEX 28.66Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10254, 2170, 2876
58
/ 100 compatProjected
286.4 pts
~2.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10254, 2170, 2876
Auto
52.6 19%
Teleop
152.4 54%
Endgame
79.3 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 35%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11175, 155, 3654
43
/ 100 compatProjected
109.4 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 11175, 155, 3654
Auto
28.7 27%
Teleop
53.0 49%
Endgame
26.4 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 35%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.79 · Blue 1.06
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score286.4pts
Blue projected score109.4pts
Red win probability90%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 25%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 177
- Score range
- 47–348
- Upset likelihood
- 10%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
472.4Season APEX274.6
52.6Auto28.7
152.4Teleop53
79.3Endgame26.4
60Consistency129
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 70 | 29 |
| teleop | 139 | 57 |
| endgame | 57 | 47 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 266 | 138 |
Result
Final score
266 – 138
Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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