New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

434.99 – 376.36

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

495 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 73.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 692.1 ±9.3

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 62.47Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 210.87Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 161.65Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 653.5 ±9.3

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 82.33Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 162.96Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 131.07Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10063, 5000, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

435 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10063, 5000, 571

Auto

77.3 18%

Teleop

241.8 56%

Endgame

116.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1729, 6324, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1729, 6324, 2370

Auto

80.6 22%

Teleop

213.5 58%

Endgame

74.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score435pts

Blue projected score376.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.6
Score range: 315–496
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 785 vs event baseline 340.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

692.1Season APEX653.5

77.3Auto80.6

241.8Teleop213.5

116.5Endgame74.2

93Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	96
teleop	281	163
endgame	129	16
foul	15	15
total	495	290

Result

Final score

495 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 73.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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