New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 92

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.66 – 180.82

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

262 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.9 ±9.8

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 91.69Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 57.8Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 78.17Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.8 ±10.4

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 49.52Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 54.34Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 76.96Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8709, 9644, 172

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8709, 9644, 172

Auto

63.8 29%

Teleop

139.9 64%

Endgame

13.5 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4905, 11175, 175

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4905, 11175, 175

Auto

36.3 20%

Teleop

93.9 52%

Endgame

51.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score227.7pts

Blue projected score180.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.8
Score range: 120–289
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 340.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.9Season APEX452.8

63.8Auto36.3

139.9Teleop93.9

13.5Endgame51.1

104Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	42
teleop	105	76
endgame	92	59
foul	0	0
total	262	177

Result

Final score

262 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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