New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

318.33 – 285.03

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

379 – 427

Prediction missed · off by 101.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.7 ±9.3

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 166.75Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 114.57Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 37.01Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 477.7 ±9.8

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 85.39Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 46.84Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 152.8Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10254, 8724, 4925

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10254, 8724, 4925

Auto

37.2 12%

Teleop

175.3 55%

Endgame

105.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 230, 3623, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

285 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 230, 3623, 6324

Auto

41.2 15%

Teleop

161.2 58%

Endgame

75.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score318.3pts

Blue projected score285pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.3
Score range: 224–379
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 806 vs event baseline 340.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.7Season APEX477.7

37.2Auto41.2

175.3Teleop161.2

105.9Endgame75.1

105Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	78
teleop	182	259
endgame	142	90
foul	5	0
total	379	427

Result

Final score

379 – 427

Prediction missed · off by 101.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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