New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

406.62 – 283.08

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

469 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 672.1 ±9.3

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 23.97Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 205.07Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 177.58Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424.6 ±10.4

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 144.64Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 80.17Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 58.27Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3654, 5000, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.6 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3654, 5000, 131

Auto

53.4 13%

Teleop

206.7 51%

Endgame

146.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 78, 1512, 10063

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 78, 1512, 10063

Auto

62.8 22%

Teleop

136.8 48%

Endgame

86.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.79 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score406.6pts

Blue projected score283.1pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.5
Score range: 222–468
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 817 vs event baseline 339.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

672.1Season APEX424.6

53.4Auto62.8

206.7Teleop136.8

146.1Endgame86.9

127Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	63
teleop	277	189
endgame	95	81
foul	5	15
total	469	348

Result

Final score

469 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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