New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

372.06 – 200.21

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

479 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 68.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.4 ±9.8

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 189.86Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 161.09Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 21.11Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.5 ±10.4

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 76.53Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 76.8Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 46.88Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2067, 236, 3958

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2067, 236, 3958

Auto

79.7 22%

Teleop

174.6 47%

Endgame

115.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 58, 172, 9710

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 58, 172, 9710

Auto

30.7 16%

Teleop

114.6 58%

Endgame

51.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.67 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score372.1pts

Blue projected score200.2pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171.9
Score range: 139–433
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 709 vs event baseline 339.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.4Season APEX360.5

79.7Auto30.7

174.6Teleop114.6

115.4Endgame51.1

99Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	41
teleop	269	99
endgame	124	55
foul	0	35
total	479	230

Result

Final score

479 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 68.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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