New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.82 – 291.03

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

212 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.2 ±9.8

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 58.28Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 89.22Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 25.32Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 515.3 ±9.8

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 74.6Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 54.33Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 162.1Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5112, 348, 8708

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5112, 348, 8708

Auto

41.2 24%

Teleop

71.5 42%

Endgame

56.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 175, 151, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

291 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 175, 151, 2713

Auto

48.2 16%

Teleop

154.5 52%

Endgame

91.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.31 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score172.8pts

Blue projected score291pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.2
Score range: 112–352
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 578 vs event baseline 340.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.2Season APEX515.3

41.2Auto48.2

71.5Teleop154.5

56.4Endgame91.8

138Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	87
teleop	110	217
endgame	81	62
foul	0	0
total	212	366

Result

Final score

212 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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