New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

664.33 – 460.68

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

730 – 498

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 877.2 ±8.1

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 251.67Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 288.24Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 124.42Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.6 ±9.4

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 100.98Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 302.27Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 57.43Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 5687, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

664.3 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1768, 5687, 1058

Auto

157.4 24%

Teleop

356.8 54%

Endgame

141.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 173, 125, 7127

/ 100 compat

Projected

460.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 173, 125, 7127

Auto

56.5 12%

Teleop

290.0 64%

Endgame

108.0 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.01 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score664.3pts

Blue projected score460.7pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203.7
Score range: 400–725
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1228 vs event baseline 336.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

877.2Season APEX571.6

157.4Auto56.5

356.8Teleop290

141.3Endgame108

92Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	156	75
teleop	405	260
endgame	169	158
foul	0	5
total	730	498

Result

Final score

730 – 498

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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