New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

375.73 – 361.15

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

386 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 614.9 ±9.3

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 178.18Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 189.66Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 7.89Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.7 ±10.4

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 83.89Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 83.38Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 193.88Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 131, 1073, 8567

/ 100 compat

Projected

375.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 131, 1073, 8567

Auto

40.0 11%

Teleop

199.7 55%

Endgame

125.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1729, 230, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1729, 230, 133

Auto

46.3 13%

Teleop

222.0 62%

Endgame

88.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score375.7pts

Blue projected score361.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.6
Score range: 300–437
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 771 vs event baseline 336.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

614.9Season APEX459.7

40Auto46.3

199.7Teleop222

125.4Endgame88

142Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	78
teleop	206	232
endgame	123	70
foul	15	5
total	386	385

Result

Final score

386 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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