New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

370.92 – 316.03

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 107 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 581.4 ±9.3

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 198.59Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 51.72Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 120.61Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 591.3 ±9.8

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 68.06Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 68.7Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 179.27Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5813, 3623, 8724

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5813, 3623, 8724

Auto

39.3 11%

Teleop

197.9 54%

Endgame

128.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4905, 2170, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

316 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4905, 2170, 571

Auto

50.5 16%

Teleop

180.2 58%

Endgame

80.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score370.9pts

Blue projected score316pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.9
Score range: 255–432
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 337.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

581.4Season APEX591.3

39.3Auto50.5

197.9Teleop180.2

128Endgame80.5

116Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	52
teleop	210	65
endgame	59	42
foul	0	0
total	314	159

Result

Final score

314 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 107 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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