New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

271.3 – 130.34

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.9 ±10.4

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 81.78Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 124.63Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 64.89Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.8 ±10.4

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 21.86Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 81.89Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 26.59Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 58, 2079, 10063

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 58, 2079, 10063

Auto

51.7 19%

Teleop

130.4 48%

Endgame

86.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3958, 1512, 155

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3958, 1512, 155

Auto

39.5 29%

Teleop

53.5 39%

Endgame

43.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score271.3pts

Blue projected score130.3pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141
Score range: 69–332
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 339.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.9Season APEX306.8

51.7Auto39.5

130.4Teleop53.5

86.9Endgame43.5

49Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	27
teleop	145	77
endgame	24	23
foul	0	15
total	220	142

Result

Final score

220 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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