Qualification · Qualification 81
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
382.2 – 384.23
49%51%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
387 – 302
Prediction missed · off by 43.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 608.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 159.24Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 269Event APEX 165.92Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 57.04Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 581.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 98.99Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 211.85Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 73.39Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 236, 10254, 9644
70
/ 100 compatProjected
382.2 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 236, 10254, 9644
Auto
73.5 20%
Teleop
218.8 58%
Endgame
83.5 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 348, 5000, 2876
71
/ 100 compatProjected
384.2 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 348, 5000, 2876
Auto
51.3 14%
Teleop
202.0 53%
Endgame
124.8 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 2.03
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score382.2pts
Blue projected score384.2pts
Red win probability49%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 65%
Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 34%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -2
- Score range
- 321–445
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
608.5Season APEX581.5
73.5Auto51.3
218.8Teleop202
83.5Endgame124.8
84Consistency130
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 101 | 66 |
| teleop | 177 | 145 |
| endgame | 109 | 91 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 387 | 302 |
Result
Final score
387 – 302
Prediction missed · off by 43.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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