New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

191.01 – 346.04

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

383 – 359

Prediction missed · off by 102.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.8 ±10.4

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 42.21Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 123.46Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 25.34Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 515 ±9.8

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 6.25Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 56.5Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 283.29Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5112, 78, 509

/ 100 compat

Projected

191 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5112, 78, 509

Auto

54.6 30%

Teleop

77.4 43%

Endgame

49.0 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8567, 10910, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

346 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8567, 10910, 5687

Auto

87.6 26%

Teleop

174.9 52%

Endgame

73.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score191pts

Blue projected score346pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -155
Score range: 130–407
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 742 vs event baseline 338.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.8Season APEX515

54.6Auto87.6

77.4Teleop174.9

49Endgame73

181Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	80
teleop	184	176
endgame	98	103
foul	0	0
total	383	359

Result

Final score

383 – 359

Prediction missed · off by 102.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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