New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

426.06 – 189.61

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

533 – 320

Prediction correct · off by 118.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 636.2 ±9.3

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 183.36Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 62.19Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 180.51Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.3 ±10.4

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 82.53Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 25.37Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 81.71Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2067, 172, 1073

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.1 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2067, 172, 1073

Auto

85.1 21%

Teleop

229.8 55%

Endgame

99.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 173, 4925, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 173, 4925, 4311

Auto

14.7 8%

Teleop

82.7 46%

Endgame

81.1 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.06 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score426.1pts

Blue projected score189.6pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 236.5
Score range: 129–487
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 853 vs event baseline 337.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

636.2Season APEX379.3

85.1Auto14.7

229.8Teleop82.7

99.7Endgame81.1

140Consistency164

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	41
teleop	313	185
endgame	144	89
foul	5	5
total	533	320

Result

Final score

533 – 320

Prediction correct · off by 118.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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