New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

323.46 – 411.07

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

472 – 392

Prediction missed · off by 83.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 649.8 ±9.3

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 35.81Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 139.93Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 147.72Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573.7 ±9.8

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 84.12Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 199.07Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 127.88Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9710, 6324, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9710, 6324, 2713

Auto

74.1 23%

Teleop

181.3 57%

Endgame

61.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 175, 133, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 175, 133, 1058

Auto

79.3 19%

Teleop

247.1 60%

Endgame

85.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.56 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score323.5pts

Blue projected score411.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.6
Score range: 263–471
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 864 vs event baseline 335.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

649.8Season APEX573.7

74.1Auto79.3

181.3Teleop247.1

61.2Endgame85.9

63Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	117
teleop	305	192
endgame	147	83
foul	0	0
total	472	392

Result

Final score

472 – 392

Prediction missed · off by 83.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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