New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

325.02 – 413.92

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

303 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.1 ±9.8

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 24.57Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 89.8Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 210.65Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 658.8 ±9.3

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 46.09Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 193.93Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 173.9Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3958, 58, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

325 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3958, 58, 195

Auto

66.7 20%

Teleop

155.1 48%

Endgame

103.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 151, 5813, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 151, 5813, 131

Auto

37.1 9%

Teleop

217.6 53%

Endgame

157.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score325pts

Blue projected score413.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.9
Score range: 265–474
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 768 vs event baseline 335.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.1Season APEX658.8

66.7Auto37.1

155.1Teleop217.6

103.8Endgame157.2

78Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	82
teleop	112	211
endgame	76	157
foul	15	15
total	303	465

Result

Final score

303 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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