New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

430.28 – 499.65

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

254 – 582

Prediction correct · off by 129.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 728 ±8.8

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 76.63Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 262.24Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 91.41Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 690.1 ±9.3

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 68.17Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 158.33Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 273.15Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 1768, 4905

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9644, 1768, 4905

Auto

77.0 19%

Teleop

247.9 60%

Endgame

91.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10063, 10254, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

499.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10063, 10254, 5687

Auto

107.1 22%

Teleop

267.1 54%

Endgame

123.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.5 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score430.3pts

Blue projected score499.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.4
Score range: 370–560
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 836 vs event baseline 334.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

728Season APEX690.1

77Auto107.1

247.9Teleop267.1

91.2Endgame123.4

113Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	128
teleop	106	313
endgame	55	136
foul	5	5
total	254	582

Result

Final score

254 – 582

Prediction correct · off by 129.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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