New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

260.85 – 354.5

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

306 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 79.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 466.1 ±9.8

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 65.1Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 149.66Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 46.09Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 622.9 ±9.3

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 111.55Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 75.13Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 167.82Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 172, 2370, 3623

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 172, 2370, 3623

Auto

58.7 24%

Teleop

138.5 57%

Endgame

47.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8724, 1512, 1073

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8724, 1512, 1073

Auto

56.0 16%

Teleop

173.3 48%

Endgame

129.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.43 · Blue 2.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score260.9pts

Blue projected score354.5pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 48%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.6
Score range: 201–415
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 775 vs event baseline 333.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

466.1Season APEX622.9

58.7Auto56

138.5Teleop173.3

47Endgame129.2

133Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	62
teleop	164	315
endgame	79	92
foul	5	0
total	306	469

Result

Final score

306 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 79.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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