Qualification · Qualification 71
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
295.1 – 234.97
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
359 – 258
Prediction correct · off by 43.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 672.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 118.62Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 140.22Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 153Event APEX 36.26Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.4 ±10.4
Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 128.26Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 83.49Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 23.22Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1058, 2713, 5112
56
/ 100 compatProjected
295.1 pts
~2.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1058, 2713, 5112
Auto
34.9 12%
Teleop
197.5 68%
Endgame
57.0 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 73%
Supercharged: 36%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 78, 1729, 155
57
/ 100 compatProjected
235 pts
~1.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 78, 1729, 155
Auto
46.0 20%
Teleop
116.5 51%
Endgame
67.0 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 73%
Supercharged: 36%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.47
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score295.1pts
Blue projected score235pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample232alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 73%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 23%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 60.1
- Score range
- 175–355
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
672.2Season APEX400.4
34.9Auto46
197.5Teleop116.5
57Endgame67
92Consistency124
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 137 | 80 |
| teleop | 147 | 114 |
| endgame | 75 | 64 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 359 | 258 |
Result
Final score
359 – 258
Prediction correct · off by 43.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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