New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

432.47 – 127.45

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

596 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 149.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 655.7 ±9.8

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 48.08Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 185.92Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 198.47Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.7 ±10.4

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 10.18Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 71.99Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 45.28Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7127, 133, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.5 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7127, 133, 5000

Auto

68.7 16%

Teleop

241.8 57%

Endgame

116.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8708, 4311, 10910

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8708, 4311, 10910

Auto

31.4 27%

Teleop

31.2 27%

Endgame

54.6 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.03 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score432.5pts

Blue projected score127.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 305
Score range: 67–492
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 859 vs event baseline 332.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

655.7Season APEX335.7

68.7Auto31.4

241.8Teleop31.2

116.2Endgame54.6

104Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	45
teleop	374	114
endgame	117	99
foul	0	5
total	596	263

Result

Final score

596 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 149.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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