New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

326.19 – 310.53

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 84.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.3 ±9.8

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 44.79Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 91.12Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 190.28Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.5 ±9.8

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 30.27Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 196.3Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 83.96Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 509, 175, 2067

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 509, 175, 2067

Auto

47.0 14%

Teleop

165.2 50%

Endgame

118.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4925, 571, 2876

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4925, 571, 2876

Auto

30.1 10%

Teleop

176.7 60%

Endgame

88.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score326.2pts

Blue projected score310.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.7
Score range: 251–386
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 333.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.3Season APEX487.5

47Auto30.1

165.2Teleop176.7

118.5Endgame88.8

95Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	51
teleop	118	87
endgame	29	84
foul	15	5
total	241	227

Result

Final score

241 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 84.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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